Morocco U23vs
Mali U23
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies · 10/1/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Morocco U23 · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Morocco U23 1-1 Mali U23
Original prediction
Morocco U23
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 53.2% | 38.6% | -14.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.8% | 28.0% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 4.34 | 21.0% | 33.4% | 12.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.53 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Morocco U23
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Morocco U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 2.67/1.00