Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Mornar are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Sutjeska are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Mornar hold a 4.6-point power-rating edge (59.3 v 54.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.2% in the First League, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 31% BTTS chance and 21% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40