Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mornar · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mornar 3-3 Jezero
Original prediction
Mornar
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 22:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 60.8% | 41.2% | -19.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.6% | 29.2% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 6.21 | 14.6% | 29.6% | 15.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.69 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Mornar
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Mornar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MornarWDLLW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
JezeroLDLWL
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MornarJezero
0.0Attack0.0
66.7Defence100.0
0.0Form33.3
23.7Power45.3
1.02xG1.02