Queensland NPLQueensland NPL
Saturday, 18 July 2026Last updated 15:01
Moreton City Excelsior

Moreton City Excelsior

Home
D
22
Full time
Peninsula Power

Peninsula Power

Away
L
GoalVio prediction
44% confidence
Draw(25%)
Most likely exact score2-2
Win probability
Moreton City Excelsior
31%
Draw
25%
Peninsula Power
44%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Moreton City Excelsior
94
Peninsula Power
34
Defence
Moreton City Excelsior
6
Peninsula Power
27
Momentum
Moreton City Excelsior
33
Peninsula Power
0
Danger (xG)
Moreton City Excelsior
2.70
Peninsula Power
0.90
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Moreton City Excelsior)
2.70
avg per match
xG for (Peninsula Power)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Moreton City Excelsior)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (Peninsula Power)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Moreton City ExcelsiorMoreton City Excelsior
WD
Peninsula PowerPeninsula Power
LDWWW

Probability breakdown

44% confidence
Moreton City Excelsior31%
Draw25%
Peninsula Power44%

Peninsula Power leads with 44% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Moreton City Excelsior head into this in Queensland NPL fixture in mixed form (D), while Peninsula Power arrive in mixed form (L). Moreton City Excelsior have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for Peninsula Power over 1 games.

The model rates Moreton City Excelsior's attack at 94/100 against a 27/100 Peninsula Power defence, and Peninsula Power's attack at 34/100 against a 6/100 Moreton City Excelsior backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

Moreton City Excelsior have won 1 of their last 2 home fixtures, averaging 3.5 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per game at home. Peninsula Power have won 2 of their last 3 away fixtures, averaging 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between Moreton City Excelsior and Peninsula Power in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects a draw with 44% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-2. Win probabilities: Moreton City Excelsior 3102%, Draw 2465%, Peninsula Power 4433%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Moreton City Excelsior

Moreton City Excelsior

W
vs Olympic
16 May 2026
43
D
vs South Melbourne
14 Nov 2025
33
Peninsula Power

Peninsula Power

L
@ APIA Leichhardt Tigers
14 Jul 2026
12
D
vs WDSC Wolves
10 Jul 2026
00
W
@ Eastern Suburbs
4 Jul 2026
31
W
@ Olympic
21 Jun 2026
31
W
vs Gold Coast Knights
15 May 2026
20

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Moreton City Excelsior vs Peninsula Power?

GoalVio's model predicts a draw with 44% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Moreton City Excelsior vs Peninsula Power?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-2.

Will both teams score in Moreton City Excelsior vs Peninsula Power?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Moreton City Excelsior vs Peninsula Power?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more