Moreton City Excelsiorvs
Gold Coast Knights
COMPLETEDAustralia · Queensland NPL · 8/28/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Moreton City Excelsior · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 1-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Moreton City Excelsior 2-0 Gold Coast Knights
Original prediction
Moreton City Excelsior
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 48.1% | 48.0% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 23.4% | 19.3% | -4.1 pts |
| Away | 3.15 | 28.5% | 32.6% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.87 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.1–16%
Predicted outcome
Moreton City Excelsior
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
Moreton City Excelsior has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40