Moreirense U23vs
Portimonense U23
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga Revelação U23 · 9/1/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Moreirense U23 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Moreirense U23 0-0 Portimonense U23
Original prediction
Moreirense U23
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 44.3% | 37.4% | -6.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 26.8% | 27.8% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.11 | 28.9% | 34.8% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.35 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Moreirense U23
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Moreirense U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 1.50/2.00
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60