GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 10/8/2024, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Morecambe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Morecambe are 0W-4D-1L in their last 5 (LDDDD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Nottingham Forest U21 are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Nottingham Forest U21 hold a 10.4-point power-rating edge (38.7 v 49.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.9% in the EFL Trophy, while Morecambe holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Morecambe

Probability

36.9%

Model confidence

36.9%

Morecambe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

MorecambeLDDDD

GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80

BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
Nottingham Forest U21WWWLW

GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60

BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
MorecambeNottingham Forest U21
44.4Attack41.7
33.3Defence50.0
33.3Form50.0
38.7Power49.1
1.67xG1.61
View match centre →