Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lincoln · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Morecambe are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Lincoln are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Lincoln hold a 14.8-point power-rating edge (38.7 v 53.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.4% in the EFL Trophy, while Lincoln holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lincoln
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Lincoln has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20