Morecambevs
Darlington 1883
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Morecambe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Morecambe 3-0 Darlington 1883
Original prediction
Morecambe
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 57.2% | 43.7% | -13.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.08 | 22.2% | 26.8% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 4.39 | 20.6% | 29.6% | 8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Morecambe
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Morecambe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40