Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Morecambe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Morecambe are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Carlisle are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLLDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Carlisle hold a 3.5-point power-rating edge (38.7 v 42.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.6% in the EFL Trophy, while Morecambe holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Morecambe
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Morecambe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80