Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Morecambe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Morecambe are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDWDL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Barrow are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 38.7 against 37.2. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.9% in the EFL Trophy, while Morecambe holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Morecambe
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
Morecambe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40