Morecambevs
AFC Telford United
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 8/28/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Morecambe · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Morecambe 2-1 AFC Telford United
Original prediction
Morecambe
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 43.0% | 39.8% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.7% | 27.2% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.90 | 31.2% | 33.0% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Morecambe
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Morecambe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00