Moravia Morawicavs
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 4 · 10/24/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Siarka Tarnobrzeg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Moravia Morawica 2-3 Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Original prediction
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.23 | 28.0% | 29.4% | 1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.6% | 27.5% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 1.95 | 46.4% | 43.1% | -3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.95 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00