Moravia Morawicavs
Jarosław
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 4 · 9/27/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jarosław · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 0-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Moravia Morawica 2-2 Jarosław
Original prediction
Jarosław
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.85 | 18.6% | 17.9% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.17 | 21.6% | 19.7% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 1.50 | 59.9% | 62.4% | 2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.17 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–39%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–38%
Predicted outcome
Jarosław
Probability
62.4%
Model confidence
62.4%
Jarosław has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
GF 17 · GA 7 · avg 3.40/1.40