Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monza U20 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Monza U20 2-2 Lecce U20
Original prediction
Monza U20
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.92 | 30.9% | 38.8% | 7.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 26.9% | 25.9% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.14 | 42.2% | 35.3% | -6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.36 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Monza U20
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Monza U20 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Monza U20WLLDL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Lecce U20DDLWD
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Monza U20Lecce U20
44.4Attack55.6
44.4Defence33.3
33.3Form22.2
43.7Power40.2
1.77xG1.47