Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Monza U20 are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLDLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Genoa U20 are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Genoa U20 hold a 2.6-point power-rating edge (46.4 v 48.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the Campionato Primavera - 1, favouring a draw with 9.0% confidence, a 73% BTTS chance and 73% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
23.4%
Model confidence
9.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40