Montserratvs
Turks and Caicos Islands
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 10/6/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Montserrat · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Montserrat 4-1 Turks and Caicos Islands
Original prediction
Montserrat
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.19 | 77.1% | 53.4% | -23.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.60 | 16.3% | 23.1% | 6.8 pts |
| Away | 13.85 | 6.6% | 23.5% | 16.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Montserrat
Probability
53.4%
Model confidence
53.4%
Montserrat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20