Montserratvs
British Virgin Islands
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 9/26/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Montserrat · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Montserrat 3-0 British Virgin Islands
Original prediction
Montserrat
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.29 | 70.3% | 42.2% | -28.1 pts |
| Draw | 5.01 | 18.2% | 22.4% | 4.2 pts |
| Away | 7.90 | 11.5% | 35.4% | 23.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-28.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Montserrat
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Montserrat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00