Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Montrose · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Montrose 3-0 Peterhead
Original prediction
Montrose
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 11:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.98 | 46.2% | 45.0% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.6% | 27.5% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.25 | 28.1% | 27.5% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.98 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Montrose
Probability
45.0%
Model confidence
45.0%
Montrose has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MontroseDWLLL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PeterheadWWLLL
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
MontrosePeterhead
42.4Attack27.3
39.4Defence48.5
48.5Form30.3
44.5Power38.0
1.45xG0.89