Montpelliervs
PAU
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 2 · 9/11/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Montpellier · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Montpellier 0-0 PAU, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Montpellier 1-0 PAU
Original prediction
Montpellier
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 49.7% | 42.5% | -7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 27.3% | 30.5% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 4.06 | 22.9% | 27.0% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.87 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.2 pts
Projected Score
Montpellier 0–0 PAU
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Montpellier
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Montpellier has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MontpellierLDWWD
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
PAUDDLWL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
MontpellierPAU
26.7Attack26.7
73.3Defence66.7
53.3Form33.3
54.1Power45.2
0.96xG0.70