Monterreyvs
Guadalajara Chivas
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 10/25/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monterrey · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Monterrey 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas
Original prediction
Monterrey
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.30 | 40.4% | 35.8% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 28.2% | 29.4% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.95 | 31.4% | 34.8% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Monterrey
Probability
35.8%
Model confidence
35.8%
Monterrey has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80