Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monterrey · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Monterrey 1-0 Cruz Azul
Original prediction
Monterrey
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.20 | 42.1% | 44.3% | 2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.8% | 22.8% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 2.90 | 32.0% | 32.9% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Monterrey
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Monterrey has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MonterreyDLDLW
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Cruz AzulLWWWL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MonterreyCruz Azul
61.9Attack66.7
52.4Defence41.7
47.6Form62.5
53.0Power59.5
2.06xG1.70