Monterreyvs
Chicago Fire
COMPLETEDWorld · Leagues Cup · 8/26/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chicago Fire · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Monterrey 2-1 Chicago Fire
Original prediction
Chicago Fire
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:46 UTC. Record timestamp is not before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.77 | 33.6% | 32.4% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.7% | 25.9% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.29 | 40.7% | 41.6% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Chicago Fire
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
Chicago Fire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00