GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 6/11/2026, 2:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Monterey Bay · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Monterey Bay are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWWLL), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Sporting JAX are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LDDDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Monterey Bay hold a 10.5-point power-rating edge (35.6 v 25.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.7% in the USL Championship, while Monterey Bay holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Monterey Bay

Probability

48.3%

Model confidence

11.7%

Monterey Bay has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Monterey BayDWWLL

GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Sporting JAXLDDDW

GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Monterey BaySporting JAX
35.0Attack40.4
40.0Defence10.5
25.0Form14.0
35.6Power25.1
1.81xG1.29
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