Monterey Bayvs
Sacramento Republic
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 8/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sacramento Republic · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Monterey Bay 0-1 Sacramento Republic, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Monterey Bay 1-1 Sacramento Republic
Original prediction
Sacramento Republic
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.74 | 24.4% | 16.8% | -7.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 26.5% | 23.8% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 1.86 | 49.0% | 59.4% | 10.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.44 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.3 pts
Projected Score
Monterey Bay 0–1 Sacramento Republic
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Sacramento Republic
Probability
59.4%
Model confidence
59.4%
Sacramento Republic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60