Monterey Bayvs
Phoenix Rising
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/6/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Phoenix Rising · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Monterey Bay 1-1 Phoenix Rising
Original prediction
Phoenix Rising
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.94 | 31.2% | 25.2% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.7% | 24.1% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.13 | 43.2% | 50.7% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.58 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Phoenix Rising
Probability
50.7%
Model confidence
50.7%
Phoenix Rising has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20