GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 3/19/2023, 2:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Louisville City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Monterey Bay are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLLDD), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Louisville City are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDDLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Louisville City hold a 16.6-point power-rating edge (35.6 v 52.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.3% in the USL Championship, while Louisville City holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Louisville City

Probability

52.3%

Model confidence

52.3%

Louisville City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Monterey BayWLLDD

GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Louisville CityWDDLL

GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Monterey BayLouisville City
35.0Attack57.9
40.0Defence43.9
25.0Form49.1
35.6Power52.2
1.20xG2.00
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