Monterey Bayvs
Lexington
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/27/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lexington · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 0-1 (12%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Monterey Bay 2-3 Lexington
Original prediction
Lexington
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.26 | 27.9% | 23.8% | -4.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.2% | 25.7% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.98 | 45.8% | 50.5% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.98 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Lexington
Probability
50.5%
Model confidence
50.5%
Lexington has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40