Monterey Bayvs
Las Vegas Lights
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 10/25/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monterey Bay · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Monterey Bay 2-1 Las Vegas Lights
Original prediction
Monterey Bay
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 37.1% | 38.0% | 0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 25.1% | 27.7% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.40 | 37.8% | 34.3% | -3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Monterey Bay
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Monterey Bay has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40