GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 3/12/2023, 3:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Monterey Bay are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Hartford Athletic are 2W-0D-1L in their last 3 (WWL), averaging 2.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 8 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Hartford Athletic hold a 10.2-point power-rating edge (35.6 v 45.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.5% in the USL Championship, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 30% BTTS chance and 21% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

42.5%

Model confidence

42.5%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Monterey BayLLDDL

GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Hartford AthleticWWL

GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 2.67/1.00

BTTS 2/3O2.5 2/3
Monterey BayHartford Athletic
35.0Attack24.1
40.0Defence68.5
25.0Form38.9
35.6Power45.8
0.69xG0.89
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