Montenegrovs
Cyprus
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 9/25/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Montenegro · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Montenegro 2-1 Cyprus
Original prediction
Montenegro
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.79 | 52.8% | 47.9% | -4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 26.7% | 27.0% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.59 | 20.6% | 25.1% | 4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Montenegro
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
47.9%
Montenegro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60