Montenegrovs
Armenia
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 10/5/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Montenegro · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Montenegro 0-0 Armenia
Original prediction
Montenegro
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.41 | 66.3% | 54.8% | -11.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.70 | 20.0% | 23.7% | 3.8 pts |
| Away | 6.82 | 13.8% | 21.4% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.70 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Montenegro
Probability
54.8%
Model confidence
54.8%
Montenegro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40