Montedio Yamagatavs
Yokohama F. Marinos
COMPLETEDJapan · J-League Cup · 9/29/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Yokohama F. Marinos · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Montedio Yamagata 1-2 Yokohama F. Marinos
Original prediction
Yokohama F. Marinos
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.56 | 19.9% | 27.5% | 7.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.1% | 28.0% | 3.9 pts |
| Away | 1.63 | 55.9% | 44.4% | -11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Yokohama F. Marinos
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Yokohama F. Marinos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00