Montedio Yamagatavs
Sagan Tosu
COMPLETEDJapan · J2 League · 9/26/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Montedio Yamagata · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Montedio Yamagata 0-0 Sagan Tosu, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Montedio Yamagata 2-0 Sagan Tosu
Original prediction
Montedio Yamagata
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.64 | 34.5% | 37.9% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.3% | 30.4% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 2.39 | 38.2% | 31.7% | -6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.64 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.4 pts
Projected Score
Montedio Yamagata 0–0 Sagan Tosu
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Montedio Yamagata
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Montedio Yamagata has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20