Montañesesvs
Tapachula
COMPLETEDMexico · Primera Premier · 10/11/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Montañeses · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Montañeses 2-1 Tapachula
Original prediction
Montañeses
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 51.5% | 51.1% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 24.6% | 24.7% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.76 | 23.9% | 24.2% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Montañeses
Probability
51.1%
Model confidence
51.1%
Montañeses has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 5 · GA 14 · avg 1.00/2.80