GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 3/3/2025, 1:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Highconfidence

Monarcas are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Venados FC are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 16.1-point power-rating edge (69.4 v 53.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.1% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 68% BTTS chance and 70% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Monarcas

Probability

52.1%

Model confidence

52.1%

Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

MonarcasLWLLL

GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Venados FCWWWDD

GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00

BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
MonarcasVenados FC
88.9Attack66.7
55.6Defence33.3
66.7Form58.3
69.4Power53.2
2.24xG1.43
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