Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Monarcas are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLW), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Tlaxcala are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 51.0-point power-rating edge (69.4 v 18.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 67.1% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 67% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 68% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
67.1%
Model confidence
67.1%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80