Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Monarcas are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Tapatío are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 10.6-point power-rating edge (69.4 v 58.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.7% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40