Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Monarcas are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDLLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Tapatío are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 10.6-point power-rating edge (69.4 v 58.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.7% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60