Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Monarcas are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Tapatío are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 10.6-point power-rating edge (69.4 v 58.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.7% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00