Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Monarcas are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Irapuato are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLWLL), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold an 18.4-point power-rating edge (69.4 v 51.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.3% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
47.3%
Model confidence
47.3%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 10 · GA 13 · avg 2.00/2.60