Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Monarcas are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWLWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Dorados are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLWL), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 69.4 against 68.0. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.2% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00