Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Monarcas are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Dorados are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 69.4 against 68.0. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.2% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80