GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 8/13/2023, 11:05:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Monarcas are 2W-0D-1L in their last 3 (WLW), averaging 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded, while Correcaminos Uat are 1W-1D-1L in their last 3 (LDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.67 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 6 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 7.4-point power-rating edge (69.4 v 62.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.8% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 72% BTTS chance and 72% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Monarcas

Probability

47.8%

Model confidence

47.8%

Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

MonarcasWLW

GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.67/1.33

BTTS 0/3O2.5 1/3
Correcaminos UatLDW

GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.67

BTTS 2/3O2.5 2/3
MonarcasCorrecaminos Uat
88.9Attack91.7
55.6Defence33.3
66.7Form58.3
69.4Power62.0
2.20xG1.61
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