GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 3/1/2024, 3:05:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Monarcas are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Cimarrones are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 17.9-point power-rating edge (69.4 v 51.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.8% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Monarcas

Probability

48.8%

Model confidence

48.8%

Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

MonarcasLDWLL

GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
CimarronesWLLLD

GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
MonarcasCimarrones
88.9Attack53.8
55.6Defence50.5
66.7Form46.2
69.4Power51.4
1.99xG1.35
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