Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Monarcas are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLDDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Celaya are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 19.7-point power-rating edge (72.5 v 52.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.6% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60