Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Monarcas are 1W-0D-1L in their last 2 (LW), averaging 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Celaya are 0W-0D-4L in their last 4 (LLLL), averaging 0.50 scored and 2.25 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 6 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 16.6-point power-rating edge (69.4 v 52.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.9% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 4 · avg 0.50/2.00
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.50/2.25