Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Monarcas are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWLWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Cancún are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 56.2-point power-rating edge (69.4 v 13.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 64.8% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 65% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
64.8%
Model confidence
64.8%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60