Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Monarcas are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWLWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.40 conceded, while CA La Paz are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold an 11.5-point power-rating edge (69.4 v 57.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.1% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40