Monagas SCvs
Estudiantes de Merida FC
COMPLETEDVenezuela · Primera División · 10/11/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Estudiantes de Merida FC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Monagas SC 2-1 Estudiantes de Merida FC
Original prediction
Estudiantes de Merida FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 17:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.26 | 40.2% | 35.4% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.5% | 28.9% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.90 | 31.4% | 35.7% | 4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Estudiantes de Merida FC
Probability
35.7%
Model confidence
35.7%
Estudiantes de Merida FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20